How are football pools different from fixed odds bets?

How is Football Pools betting different from other types of sports betting?

Consider conventional bets on a horse race or the outcome of a single soccer match. A bookie (‘bookmaker’, local accountant, etc.) quotes the odds for a punter (someone who places a bet) either face to face, over the phone or online. Now, the odds that are quoted when the price is first set are based on the bookie’s initial perception of the odds of a given outcome.

As the event approaches, the odds quoted by the bookie are ‘decreased’, i.e. increased (say 4/1 to 10/1) or shortened (say 4/1 to 7/2). . Obviously, we are using the UK fractional quota system here, not the American or European one; however, this does not alter the principle.

Now this odds change is purely a result of the bets the bookie receives and the money the bookie has at risk. It has nothing to do with the ‘real probabilities’ (whatever they are) of the outcome of the event. The bookie is simply shortening the odds to protect himself (because he is taking too many high odds bets, which would be painful for him to lose), or lengthening the odds on other horses to balance the lower priced horses by moving the odds away. bets. of the favourite, again to protect himself.

If the bookmaker’s book is getting out of balance, perhaps from having made several big bets, then they will make sure to ‘say goodbye’, placing their own bets with other bookies to offset their risk. The principles are the same in hedge funds and stock trading.

Of course, on a ‘quiet day’ bookies can also offer generous odds as a way to boost business.

What it boils down to is that if you bet when odds are first available for the event, then you’ll probably get almost realistic odds for the actual outcome of the event (from the bookmaker’s point of view).

When the bet is placed, the bettor knows in advance what the payout will be for a given outcome (regardless of when the bet is placed). The principle is the same for a fixed odds bet on a football match. However, there are only four possible outcomes of a soccer match for the team you select (win, lose, draw, no tie), ignoring nulls. So randomly, for a single soccer match, the odds are 1 in 4 of a correct single outcome forecast. For a horse race with 8 horses, the random odds are 1 in 8 for single outcome forecast (win, lose) – a ‘place’ is really 3 bets.

How is that different from pools and what are the chances of winning soccer pools?

In UK soccer pools, the bettor bets that a certain series of games will produce a certain result (eg 8 draws or 11 home wins out of 49 games). Odds are not set at the time of betting. There is no prior knowledge of the number of draws that will be on a given coupon. In the 2008/2009 English season, there were 355 draws for points across 42 coupons, an average of 8.4 draws for points per coupon. Including non-scoring draws, the figure is 544 draws, an average of 12.8 draws per coupon. 28 coupons had 12 or more draw games.

The odds of predicting a single correct line of 8 score tie when there are only 8 score tie outcomes are 450 million to 1. That’s a big number, but with a low cost for each ‘line’, or bet, and some precautions. Forma analysis, it is possible to reduce the odds down to 3/1 with a reasonable bet level.