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After losing the Player of the Year (Ballon d’Or) award to Lionel Messi for four years in a row, Cristiano Ronaldo won the award in 2013. This and Ronaldo’s great start to the new season have fueled an old debate about whether he is better. player than Messi.

The discussion has focused on a particular set of statistics, namely the goals. To the extent that the data can help us make an educated guess about player performance, Messi is the better of the two at club and international level.

However, if the goals are used as a criterion to compare the players, it is not enough to look only at the number of goals scored. You should also divide the conversion rate into things such as whether the shots are from inside or outside the area, the expectation of goal, that is, if an average player would score given the opportunity presented, and the quality of the opponents.

CLUB LEVEL

The findings of a recent mathematical study were published in the Washington Post that showed that between 2009 and 2013 Messi’s average quality of opportunities (that is, the quality of opportunities created) was higher than that of Ronaldo. Ronaldo had more shots, but most were from long range and only scored 30 goals of 587 such shots, while Messi scored 28 goals of his 287 long range shots. Messi was more efficient because he converted a higher percentage of his shots, that is, 9.75% to 5.11%.

The study found that Messi is better at getting into goal positions, as he had 29 shots in the danger zone (from inside the box) compared to 20 for Ronaldo.

Messi is also a better finisher. In the period 2009/10 to 2013/14, Messi averaged 40% more goals than expected compared to Ronaldo’s 20% (see WASHINGTON POST – Despite the great season, Cristiano Ronaldo is no better than Lionel Messi; for Michael Caley, November 7, 2014).

Last season, Ronaldo broke the norm and surpassed Messi. This propelled him to win the Ballon d’Or in 2013. But this must be considered in light of the fact that Messi missed part of the year through injury and when he resumed the game he almost reached Ronaldo’s count of 31 for scoring 28 at the end. of the 2013/14 season.

Also, in the current season, Ronaldo is off to a great start scoring 12 goals without penalty against 7. A plausible explanation for this is not that Ronaldo is now a better player, but rather that it is attributed to the changing roles of both players in their respective clubs.

With the addition of Neymar and Luis Suárez on the flanks of Barcelona’s 4-3-3 formation, Messi now plays a profound role in the game that has led to his goals down while his assists increase. His goals per game fell from just under 1.50 in the 2012/13 season to 0.86 in 2014/15, while his assists in 2013/14 were just under 0.50 and rose to 0.86 in the current season.

At Real Madrid the trend was the opposite. With the recent addition of Gareth Bale and James Rodriques in midfield, Ronaldo is now more of a forward and less focused on distribution. Now he takes more shots from inside the penalty area and in the current season his 12 non-penalized goals except for 2 were from inside the area. His goals per game rose from 1.00 in 2013/14 to 2.20 in 2014/15, while his assists in the same period fell from 0.25 to 0.17 (ESPN FC GLOBAL- Realigning Stars: Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo Facing Role Changes; By Michael Cox, Oct 23, 2014).

INTERNATIONAL LEVEL

Messi has a better hit rate than Ronaldo. All-time statistics for all competitions show that Messi has 44 goals in 95 games (0.46 goals per game), while Ronaldo has 51 out of 116 games (0.43 goals per game) (INTERNATIONAL STATS – 8 of November 2014).

World Cup – Messi also surpasses Ronaldo with 5 goals in 15 games (0.33 goals per game) to Ronaldo’s 3 goals in 13 games (0.23 goals per game) (INTERNATIONAL STATS, etc.).

Messi’s record is very impressive. In 2014 he led Argentina to the final, was voted Player of the Match in 4 games (the most of any player in the competition) and won the Golden Boot as the best player of the tournament.

Contrary to what some critics say, he was the most deserving of the latter award. He had the biggest impact on the competition, as Argentina would not have advanced to the final without him. He was the joint top scorer with 4 goals and assists, created the most chances, had the most successful dribbling runs, made the most deliveries to the box, and produced the most passes through of any player.

On the contrary, Ronaldo has a sorry record. He has only scored three goals and against weak opponents, namely a penalty against Iran (2006), the sixth goal in a 7-0 win against North Korea in 2010 and a late goal against Ghana in 2014. In the last tournament his only real goal contribution was an assist against the USA.

QUALITY OF OPPONENTS

Messi has more professional goals for the club and the country. He has a total of 420 goals in 564 matches (or 0.74 goals per match), while Ronaldo has 449 goals in 702 matches (or 0.63 goals per match).

The important difference is that Argentina has more game-changing goals and against stronger opposition. His goals are directly associated with winning La Liga titles, Champions League victories, Olympic gold medal matches, and Club and Youth World Cups.

For example, on March 24, 2014 for Barcelona he scored against the best teams, namely 21 against Real Madrid (Barcelona’s fiercest rival), 20 against league champion Atlético de Madrid and 18 against Sevilla. (most successful club in Andalusia). In the Champions League it has 12 against German teams, 8 against English teams and 5 against Italian teams. And in the 2014 World Cup he scored 4 winning goals.

Ronaldo, on the other hand, has failed to score in decisive matches and managed to score multiple goals against weak teams not only with his club but with his country. For example, in the English Premier League for Manchester United he only scored 2 goals in 9 games against Liverpool (United’s fiercest rival) and scored 1 goal in 15 games against the stalwart Chelsea.

In the Champions League with United he failed to score in his first 26 games and although he scored in the 2014 final with Real Madrid he had little impact in the other final in which he played in 2009 in a 2-0 loss to Barcelona. .

In Spain in his first 9 games against Barcelona (Real Madrid’s main rival) he scored only 3 goals.

In the World Cup he has a regrettable record which was discussed above and in the European Championship he has 6 goals against minnows Greece, the Czech Republic and a weak team from Holland and underperforms against strong teams like Germany and Spain.

All in all, the statistics show that Messi is the best player because he is better at getting into goal positions, he is a better spiker and he is a more efficient goal scorer. Messi has an age advantage because he is 27 and Ronaldo 29 and although both are likely to continue playing for a few more years, Argentina will have more time than Ronaldo to extend their record of achievements. Meanwhile, the debate continues.

Victor A. Dixon

November 20, 2014

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